SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's snowpack is off to a slow start, but it's not alone compared to the rest of the West.
The Beehive State entered New Year's Day with an average snowpack of 3.9 inches of snow water equivalent, the amount of water within the buildup of snow in the mountains. That was 69% of the median average for Jan. 1, based on the past 30 years that make up the normal, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.
It has since fallen to 67% of the median average as of Wednesday morning, but Utah's statewide collection is expected to get a boost with a series of storms forecast to arrive over the next week.
Except for Alaska, all other states where the agency tracks snowpack levels are off to equally slow starts.
Alaska's snowpack entered Wednesday with 8.8 inches of snow water equivalent, 146% of normal for Jan. 3 and 0.1 inches away from its highest recorded since 1990. But Idaho, Montana and Wyoming's snowpacks are the lowest on record for early January, while Washington's average snowpack is tied for the worst since at least 1985.
Notes: Median percentage off the normal for Jan. 3 within each state's records. Alaska's total is 0.1 inches off its highest since at least 1990. Wyoming's total is the lowest since at least 1981, Idaho's total is the lowest since at least 1982, Montana's total is the lowest since at least 1979 and Washington's total is tied for the lowest since at least 1985. Source: Natural Resources Conservation ServiceWestern snowpack totals so far
The reason for such a dramatic difference has to do with how the weather has played out over the past few months.
Sam Webber, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Salt Lake City office, explains the primary storm track so far this season — during this El Niño winter — shot storms into southern Alaska, while a "stubborn" series of high-pressure systems generally prevented storms from reaching the western portion of the contiguous U.S., aside from some storms here and there.
"The story of the snowpack kind of details where the storm track has been," he told KSL.com. "That's why you're seeing (Alaska) seeing such a great year so far and why we've been really struggling to accumulate much of any snowfall across the West."
The primary storm track last winter, during a La Niña winter, entered California on a path directly through Utah as storms moved east, resulting in Utah's record 2023 snowpack. The series of storms drastically helped the drought situation in Utah and across the West.
There has been enough precipitation so far this season, the region's drought hasn't changed much. The U.S. Drought Monitor lists nearly one-fourth of the West in at least a moderate drought, down from close to one-third three months ago. The percentage of land not in any sort of drought classification is only slightly down from 56% to 53%.
It just hasn't produced much in the sense of snowpack thus far, which experts across the region have noticed. David Barjenbruch, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Colorado, told Vail Daily on Tuesday the Western snowpack has been "pretty thin" so far this season.
Why it matters
Snowfall is important for outdoor recreation, but the snowpack collection and spring snowmelt process are vital when it comes to the West's water supply. It accounts for 95% of Utah's water supply and, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 60% to 70% of the region's water supply.
That's why water managers monitor snowpack so closely. Candice Hasenyager, director at the Utah Division of Water Resources, said Dec. 20 that the agency is "planning for all possibilities" when it comes to this year's snowpack, adding that she's "hopeful Mother Nature will deliver some much-needed snow" by the end of winter.
Sean de Guzman, a snow surveys and water supply forecasting unit manager for the California Department of Water Resources, told the San Francisco Chronicle on Tuesday it's "still too early to determine what kind of year" California will have, but he's also noted that it's situation is "vastly different" from heavy snowfall totals last winter.
A promising outlook?
The storms they are hoping for are finally returning this week.
Snow is in Utah's forecast through most of the rest of this week and into at least the first half of next week, as the latest high-pressure system weakens and drifts east, Webber says. Long-range outlooks produced by the weather service's Climate Prediction Center also indicate a slightly higher probability of above-normal precipitation across Utah through the end of March, with stronger odds in southern Utah.
"There's still some indication that the second half of the winter could pick up and give us more active weather much like we'll see this week," he said, adding that "extended periods" of high pressure could still emerge this season.
As for the rest of the region, its January outlook favors a large chunk of the West, especially parts that tend to benefit from a traditional El Niño winter. Southern California and Arizona, as well as parts of Nevada and New Mexico, have the strongest odds of above-normal precipitation this month, at 50% to 60%. The lowest odds are in Montana, along with large chunks of Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming, which have equal odds of wetter, drier or normal conditions.
Most of Arizona, California, Colorado and Nevada join Utah in having the strongest odds within the center's three-month outlook. A higher probability of below-normal precipitation is forecast for chunks of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming.
While time will only tell, some states may end up with closer to normal snowpacks than others, like what has happened this far.
